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(This article was written for the MRCOG 2009 Annual Report)
For most of the decade New Mexico and the MRCOG Region experienced economic prosperity, with a thriving housing market and several major employers announcing their decision to locate here. However, as the national economy has languished in recession, the MRCOG Region has not been immune to decline. According the Bureau of Business and Economic Research’s (BBER) FOR-UNM Bulletin, New Mexico has been in a recession of its own for the first two quarters of 2009. New construction in the housing industry in particular has slowed to a crawl and the metropolitan area continues to have a higher than usual inventory of homes on the market. Consumers have adopted a “wait and see” approach in both personal and professional investment endeavors.
Recent efforts to bring us closer to recovery include lower mortgage rates, increased tax incentives to businesses, homebuyers and homeowners, and the promise of a financial boost to our communities that will come in the form of stimulus funding. While many remain skeptical, a glance into the not too distant future shows the likelihood for a renewed expansion of the housing market, a growing population, and a return to employment gains across previously sluggish sectors. BBER projections show the MRCOG region topping one million people by 2015, and (non-agricultural) employment making steady gains year-over-year between 2009 and 2014.
The table here contains two important stories. First, the faster pace of housing growth throughout this decade in comparison with employment. Although there are an estimated 1.14 jobs for each home in the region in 2008, there were only .53 new jobs created per new home for the past eight years. Second, we see the continued movement outward from Albuquerque to surrounding areas. Rio Rancho experienced an abundance of new housing in the region and nearly issued the same number of permits as the City of Albuquerque in 2005. The rest of Bernalillo County (outside of Albuquerque) has also seen tremendous job growth, with tribal casinos contributing several thousand new jobs.
The residential growth areas map below shows the metropolitan areas that have seen the greatest concentration of housing construction. The far northwestern and southwestern parts of Albuquerque stand out, as well as north Albuquerque Acres and Juan Tabo Hills. Rio Rancho experienced a surge of new housing throughout, with concentrations in the Cabazon, Enchanted Hills and Northern Meadows subdivisions. Los Lunas also witnessed strong housing construction, particularly in the Huning Ranch subdivision.
Although there has been job growth throughout the region specific corridors and centers in the City of Albuquerque continue to hold the concentration of jobs in the region. The I-25 North corridor, the university and hospital zones, and downtown Albuquerque continue to host the greatest concentrations, with the shopping areas of Uptown and Cottonwood Mall also noteworthy contributors. Employment also continues to be heavily scattered throughout the northeast heights, with westside concentrations in the West Bluff area and Atrisco Park. Starting at Intel and northward along NM 528 is another key employment corridor in the region.
When the map of housing growth is compared to the distribution of employment, it is apparent that the east-west routes for travel remain a critical issue for transportation needs as residents increasingly locate west of the Rio Grande, while the major job concentrations are still primarily east of the river. This pattern has increasingly risen to the forefront of conversations regarding land use across the region as planners, politicians, and the public alike are asking the question, “Is this a sustainable pattern of growth for the future for our region?”
Contact: Kendra Watkins, Senior Data Analyst, (
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