Population

The southwest is becoming an increasingly attractive destination to live, and it is estimated that since 2000 the MRCOG region has gained over 100,000 people. Construction in the early part of the decade hit record highs and new developments have sprouted up throughout the region. At the same time, the region is responding to the fact that resources are becoming more and more strained. Alternative water sources are being pursued, the building of new schools has been placed on a critical path, and congestion management strategies have become central to transportation planning. Looking ahead to 2030 it is clear just how important it is to plan now for the growth that is likely to come.

The MRCOG Region is forecast to grow by just over 327,000 people and top a million people by 2030.

Historical and Forecast Population, MRCOG Region

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, U.S. Census Bureau, MRCOG

The above chart shows how the growth rate of the region compares to total population growth. It illustrates the growth spurt in the region between 1930 and 1960 when the pace of growth averaged over 5% annually as the population climbed quickly. Looking toward the future, it shows that although the population is expected to continue growing steadily in numbers, the pace of growth is projected to slow over time.

The counties that comprise the MRCOG region will experience growth to varying extents. The following table shows the estimated population in 2004, and the forecast population for 2030, by county.

Forecast Population Change by County

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, MRCOG

Bernalillo County will continue to experience the bulk of population growth, capturing almost half of all new persons. Sandoval County will capture an increasing share with nearly 95,000 new people and a growth of 92% over the forecast period. Valencia County is second only to Sandoval County in terms of pace of growth, growing by 85% and gaining nearly 60,000 new people. Torrance County and Southern Santa Fe County, combined, are forecast to add another 15,000 people to the region.

The following charts show how the regional share of the population by county are projected to change over the forecast period.

Forecast Population Distribution by County

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, MRCOG

An increasing shift is anticipated over the next several years towards growth in the counties that surround Bernalillo County, most noticeably to Sandoval and Valencia Counties. By 2030 Bernalillo County will still be home to over 67% of the region’s population, however, this is down from 75% in 2004.

The following map shows where population growth is projected to be strongest within the metropolitan area.

Source:  MRCOG

Population growth is expected to be scattered throughout the region. Some of the more prominent areas for growth in the metro area are the southwest mesa, the far northeast heights, the Los Lunas area, northwest Albuquerque, and northern Rio Rancho. Much of this growth is spurred by large master planned communities such as Huning Ranch in Los Lunas, the Mesa del Sol area south of the Sunport, the Volcano Heights area at Paseo del Norte and Unser, and the Mariposa Community at the top of the map. These areas show up most clearly in the map because land availability allows for greater concentrations of new homes. However, there is also infill projects occurring throughout the urban area, particularly in and around downtown Albuquerque.