Population

Growth in the southwest region has boomed throughout the past decade and while New Mexico did not receive the exponential growth experienced by its neighbors, Arizona and Nevada, it certainly felt the joy and pain that came with the rise and fall of the housing market. MRCOG estimates that between 2000 and 2008 the MRCOG region gained over 145,000 residents. Since 2008 building permits for new construction have dwindled and new site plans brought before local planning boards have been few and far between. It may seem contradictory to talk about growth following a deep recession and a housing market collapse -- but long range forecasting is not about today or even tomorrow; it is about 5, 15, and 25 years into the future. Looking ahead to 2035 it is clear just how important it is to plan now for the growth that is expected to lie ahead of us. As we collect ourselves and consider how we will move forward it is certain that a transformation has taken place, and as we enter this new economy we might see this reflected in how we grow as a region.

The MRCOG region is forecast to grow by just over 668,000 people and top 1.5 million people by 2035. This is the equivalent of adding another Bernalillo County to the region. The following chart shows historical growth in the region from 1960 through present, and the forecast to 2035. 

The projected rate of growth is actually quite consistent with historical data. . The chart also shows the magnitude of population growth we have experienced since 1960 and that the largest spurt occurred between 1970 and 1980 when the region grew by 37.5 percent. Driven by economic factors we are experiencing a slowdown in population growth, which is apparent by 2008 and extends to 2015. Following 2015, we expect to see a rebound in the pace of population growth throughout the duration of the forecast. Population in the MRCOG region will top 1 million shortly after 2015.

The following chart demonstrates the critical and growing presence that the MRCOG region has within the state.

In 1960, about one out of every three people in the state resided in the central region. Right now, that has risen to about 42 percent. By 2035 one out of every two people in the state will live in the MRCOG region.

Although the region is projected to grow by 76 percent by 2035, the counties within it will not all grow uniformly, as seen in the table below.

In terms of sheer numbers Bernalillo County will capture the majority of growth and undoubtedly maintain its central role in the region and state as a residential and employment hub. However, its neighbors to the north and south, Sandoval and Valencia Counties, are projected to experience faster growth over the forecast period and more than double their current populations. It is important to note that MRCOG's county projections are a departure from the 2035 projections put forth by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER). BBER's projections were relied upon to establish the regional population targets and MRCOG forecast the individual counties based on land use and current development plans and policies. A discussion of this process is available here:  2035 County Projections Discussion .

By forecasting both population and employment at a sub-county level MRCOG is able to project travel patterns with great detail and reveal areas that have a high likelihood for increased congestion that may be targeted for future investment. One specific area of concern today is travel across our river crossings, particularly during peak commuting hours. Demographics provide some insight on how current congestion may be exacerbated into the future.

Today, about 42 percent of the population in the MRCOG region (the four central counties plus southern Santa Fe County) lives west of the Rio Grande. By 2025, half of the population will live west of the river and by 2035 the population share will grow to nearly 57 percent, or an additional 500,000 people living west of the river.

The finest geographic level of MRCOG's forecast is at the DASZ – Data Analysis Subzone – level. In general, DASZs are smaller than Census tracts, allowing us to hone in on growth and the interaction between population and jobs and the impact on the transportation network. The following map shows forecast population growth between 2008 and 2035 by DASZ.

The population growth reflects areas that are planned for growth, including a multitude of infill development and some large Master Planned areas, such as Mesa del Sol. Due to the magnitude of the projection for population growth, however, some areas that are currently not planning for or may not desire new growth are also projected to see substantial development, such as the far Southwest Mesa. To be sure, there are great challenges to this kind of low-density scattered development including lack of water, sewer, and transportation infrastructure, lack of job centers, and environmental justice issues, to name a few. This underscores the critical need to plan for and develop strategies to reasonably accommodate future growth with an emphasis on sustainability.

MRCOG's forecast is based on existing development plans, land use regulations, and planning policy as approved by member governments through sector plans, area plans, and comprehensive plans. Changes in planning policies will result in a different forecast. While the forecast for 2035 reflects today's plans, MRCOG's forecasts are updated every four years, which means that every four years it will be updated with new policies and the most current data available.