Mid-Region Council of Government's (MRCOG) DASZ datasets include current and forecast socioeconomics that pertain to population, housing, employment. DASZs represent a transportation planning geography called Data Analysis Subzones, which are small units of geography that are compatible with MRCOG's transportation model. These datasets are created by MRCOG to understand existing transportation trends and project future travel demand in the region. However, their use extends beyond travel demand forecasting to land use planning, economic development and so on.
The Data Dictionary (PDF) provides definitions of the variables that may be included in each database.
Socioeconomic Estimates by DASZ
- The 2016 population estimates were derived from ESRI Business Analyst Online. ESRI uses a cohort survival model to carry the 2010 Census population block data forward to 2016.
- The 2016 housing figures were derived by advancing the 2010 Census block data to 2016 using residential building permits issued between 2010 and 2015.
- The 2016 employment estimate is based employment data purchased from a third party vendor, Infogroup. This data was checked and verified through phone calls, internet searches and against previous employment databases. This file was smoothed to match county control targets that were independently derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages by County supplemented with uncovered military, self-employment, and agricultural employment estimates.
- The public school enrollment data comes directly from the NM Public Education Department. UNM/CNM enrollment comes directly from their respective enrollment fact books.
- The 2016 DASZ dataset contains data from the 2010 Census, ESRI, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions, InfoUSA, and the NM Public Education Department.
Revised 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast by DASZ
This forecast replaces the Original 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast by DASZ as the official forecast that accompanies the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan. This forecast should be used when planning for growth or designing transportation projects.
Original 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast by DASZ
The 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast became final with the approval of the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) by the Metropolitan Transportation Board (MTB) in May of 2015. The 2040 forecast replaces the 2035 Socioeconomic Forecast as the official forecast for transportation planning purposes. The core elements of the forecast include population, households, household population, housing units (single family and multi-family) and employment (basic, retail, and service). These variables are forecast for the 914 Data Analysis Subzones (DASZs) that comprise the MRCOG region.
About the Forecast
The forecast was developed with the assistance of a land use simulation modelling system that was estimated and calibrated specifically for the MRCOG region. Inputs include existing population, employment, and land use inventories, local planning documents (including sector plans, area plans, master plans, etc.), local zoning regulation (including allowable uses and densities), local development review cases, historical building permits, vacancy rates, and developer and planner interviews.
The regional projection for population was based on county-level population projections developed by the University of New Mexico’s Geospatial Population Studies in 2012. The regional employment projection was developed by MRCOG using a custom built economic forecasting tool.
How to Use the Forecast
Please use the 2012 Socioeconomic Estimate to accompany the 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast when analyzing anticipated growth over time. The 2012 dataset is the base-year estimate for the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan.