Mid-Region Council of Government's (MRCOG) DASZ datasets include current and forecast socioeconomics that pertain to population, housing, employment. DASZs represent a transportation planning geography called Data Analysis Subzones, which are small units of geography that are compatible with MRCOG's transportation model. These datasets are created by MRCOG to understand existing transportation trends and project future travel demand in the region. However, their use extends beyond travel demand forecasting to land use planning, economic development and so on.
The Data Dictionary (PDF) provides definitions of the variables that may be included in each database.
Socioeconomic Estimates by DASZ
- The 2016 population estimates were derived from ESRI Business Analyst Online. ESRI uses a cohort survival model to carry the 2010 Census population block data forward to 2016.
- The 2016 housing figures were derived by advancing the 2010 Census block data to 2016 using residential building permits issued between 2010 and 2015.
- The 2016 employment estimate is based employment data purchased from a third party vendor, Infogroup. This data was checked and verified through phone calls, internet searches and against previous employment databases. This file was smoothed to match county control targets that were independently derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages by County supplemented with uncovered military, self-employment, and agricultural employment estimates.
- The public school enrollment data comes directly from the NM Public Education Department. UNM/CNM enrollment comes directly from their respective enrollment fact books.
- The 2016 DASZ dataset contains data from the 2010 Census, ESRI, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions, InfoUSA, and the NM Public Education Department.
2040 Socioeconomic Forecast by DASZ
On April 17th, 2020, the Metropolitan Transportation Board approved the 2040 Connections Metropolitan Transportation Plan. This approval included the adoption of a new 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast for the MRCOG Region. This 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast by DASZ should be used with the MTP base year estimate, the 2016 Socioeconomic Estimate by DASZ, when exploring projected growth over time.
The core elements of the forecast include population, households, household population, housing, and employment. The shapefile provided contain 2016 and 2040 figures to allow for easy analysis of projected growth over time.
About the Forecast
The forecasting process begins with a high-level regional forecast (Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance, Valencia, and Southern Santa Fe Counties) for population and employment which is then allocated to small level DASZ forecast.
The regional projection for population is based on county-level population projections developed by the University of New Mexico’s Geospatial Population Studies (GPS) in 2016. The regional employment projection was developed by MRCOG using a combination of sources including University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) and a locally customized Regional Economic Model (REMI).
The DASZ level forecast is developed with the assistance of a land use simulation modelling system (UrbanSim) that is estimated and calibrated specifically for the MRCOG region. Inputs include existing population (census and ESRI), employment (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and InfoGroup), land use inventories, recent building permits, development review cases, local plans (including sector plans, area plans, master plans, etc.), local zoning regulation (including allowable uses and densities), vacancy rates, development costs, building square footage, undevelopable lands, and information collected through developer and planner interviews.
View the 2040 MTP Land Use Forecasting Methods (PDF) for a detailed description about forecasting methods.